STICK TO EXIT/PROFIT TARGETS AS SOON AS IT HITS TARGET CLOSE THE TRADE NO HESITATION

STICK TO THE PLAN LET THE TRADE RUN


EMOTIONAL CAPITAL TAKES MONTHS TO BUILD AND SECONDS TO LOSE PRESERVATION IS PARAMOUNT




THERE WILL BE NO SETUP THAT TELLS YOU EXACTLY WHAT TO DO - USE YOUR INTUITION




Sunday, 23 September 2012

Rules


Daily set-up checklist:
Plot on chart:
• Pivots
• Previous day high/low
• Previous day POC, VALH and VALL
• S&P – Current day POC, VALH and VALL
• S/R Levels
Rules:
First observations:
• Where are we trending relative to the most recent swing?
• Do we have an obvious bias for direction?
• Are we in a range period?
• Where is the next expectation level?
• Is there any obvious trapped orderflow?
• How is the 3m looking for bias?
• Do we have any scenarios?
• Will the next trade we are looking for be high/low-probability
A level where we look for a test = Current high/low of the day or a level where at least 2 swings have stopped.
A Zone = Several swing highs stopped in close proximity but not exactly this is supply/demand zone take test trades but they will need more room to breathe so adjust trading accordingly
New trend = Price breaks a previous swing in the opposite direction by around at least 8-10 pips we are now looking for PBs in the new direction should price act accordingly.

Trading box nuance


SR pivot analysis


Wild Swing Analysis part 1


Friday, 14 September 2012

Things to do at the weekend

Screen checklist

Pivots, previous day high/low

Price Action chekclist

First Basic Analysis:

Where are the most recent swings?
Where is the expectation (S/R level) in the direction of the trend?

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Getting in at the right point what does this mean to how hard the trade should be to manage (Investigate)? How close to the point it is not normally going to be perfect

Grade the trade low probability/High probability? Grade the previous price action trades

This is discretionary trading but I need to come up with a basic set of rules for now:
What are we counting as a level e.g. at least 2 swings where price has stopped or a naked swing high low i.e. the high or low of the day at that time
When is the trend broken e.g. when it breaks the previous swing high/low with force by a good amount i.e. 10 pips then we are looking for a pullback in the new direction with the expectation to test the next level
Careful when you have a level or a zone e.g. a zone is several swings stopping in an area a level is swings stopping almost to the pip.  You have to adjust trading size and stops accordingly and allow for extra room for a zone trade to breath
How do you define a rotational period? e.g. 3 consecutive swings on both sides stopping in a level or zone
In a rotational period what side do you then have a bias for do you use the bigger 3m picture to help and go with the bigger swing bias?
You have to be careful when looking at the bias changing as its breaking a swing but is it also then testing the next level always bear in mind has it broken the previous swing which is therefore bias change but at the same time is it testing the next expectation level?
With the test you then go with the expectation of the level holding
On a change of bias what happens when the next swing up or down can't break the previous! This is important
Is it important to have scenarios for both an upwards and a downwards move from this situation
After it breaks above a range and confirms trend it may swing down and then move up to test that naked swing, should this be treated as a normal test?
On tests look for price acceptance above/below the level
Think is this a high or low probability set up
Be intuitive watch the depth of the pullback not just where the swings reach
You have to know when to say no bias stand aside for a clearer move


Look at the difference between when to use the bias/swings on the 3m and when to use the 1m look at todays action remember to look at expectation and when we get to a level we are expecting a test and the test to hold.

In depth analysis of Friday trading

In depth swing analysis

Tuesday, 11 September 2012

11th September 2012

Tough price action today lessons learned:


  • Knowing when to put more weight on the 3m not the 1m and vice versa.



  • Poor trade management cutting my losers is getting more of problem even when I am positive I am know wrong just holding in hope of it coming back is the road to ruin when trading like this.  Being able to cut losers is imperative to this style.



  • Focus today was poor probably due to the weekend which is something that I need to think about.





Tuesday, 4 September 2012

4th September IMPORTANT POST

This is going to be an important post.  Firstly I had the best trading day so far on Friday and then the worst trading today.  What are the key reasons.

I came in with a bias that was completely wrong.  The bias was fair enough at first opening drive go with the trend but price soon proved me wrong but I kept ignoring the fact.  The reason I traded so well on Friday was I had a bias but I was flipping it all the time as price unfolded today I did not and was almost arrogant about my opinion.

I committed one of the cardinal sins of trading for the first time I moved my stop and was punished severely which is good as I know this can never happen again.

I'm learning to watch the price swings on the lower time frame and really enjoying it but the longer time frame 3m was actually painting a more obvious picture of where price wanted to go rather than over analyzing the finer details sometimes you need to look at the more obvious signs that price is giving you.  It is about knowing when to use the right analysis or put more emphasis on one side of PA than the other.

Looking for swings not breaking previous highs/lows is important but if a huge level is being defended this can be the most prevalent piece of PA at the time.  Look for the level to break and then change the bias otherwise less focus on the detailed PA just get in the trade with the strength.








Saturday, 1 September 2012

31st August 2012 Lessons

1)Focus 100% on the charts you need to be immersed in the price to trade this is the only way.

2)Be more confident to take the trades when the swings show you where price does not want to go.  Especially when the swings can't break previous swing highs lows on multiple tests and then fail to even reach the level.