31st May 2012

This isn't impossible it is just very hard, my psychology is letting me down now more than anything.  I have to learn to focus and wait for the correct trade I am struggling to trade after work but this is the only option so I have to sort out my mentality and psychology to get to the end result.

Weekly round - up 25th May

First profitable week positive 4 days out of 5 but only marginally but still much better than normal psychology is improving.

25th May Trading

Dow short +39 points

24th May Trading

10
-3
1
-12
2
2
0
1
14

Total = +15

Worst price action after 5 this week for me.

Using the 1 minute chart as well now it is good for pull backs in a trend but the overall picture need to remember to stick to the 3m

23rd May Trading

Lots of amazing set ups today still not traded correctly but better

Dow short -13

Dow long +31

Total = +18

22nd May 2012

I am now at a point where I am trading my fear of the probability not working rather than trading the probability working trades will always not work they have to not work but I am getting and seeing good entries and not taking them.  TRADE THE PROBABILITY OF THE TRADE WORKING.... FOCUS

+8 Dow

There was some very interesting price action earlier in the day today with price making higher highs but the price looked very weak easy to say in hindsight but it was like the price was dragging more and more longs in and then just made them all puke in a massive sell off.  If I see something similar to this I'm sure the best way to trade would be fade the legs up then add to the position when it shows you it is right because the move will beq quite violent.  It was like price was hitting a brick wall of resistance on every leg up and making a wedge pattern away from the resistance level price was getting slightly weaker with every bounce then it would push up hard but only just make a higher high it did this 3 times then collapsed looking at the PA it was interesting to see.

21st May Trading

Not very nice price action after 5 but what I thought was going to happen did happen again.  I felt that shorts were going to get squeezed out and prices were going to push higher and that is what happened I just didn't trade it correctly.  Even though again price would have not hit my stop I cut the trade when it looks wrong If I had left it then it would not have hit my stop and gone on to hit +50 so I need to do some analysis with my stats.  Maybe I am trying to discretionary trade too much although the way I would want to trade this is get out take the small loss then get back in again when price shows a set up which it did again.  More so on the S&P the price was squeezing out shorts but the dow obviously followed.

S&P was squeezing out shorts who were looking for bearish action as price pushed up to the high of the day but I felt it was going to break higher and I was right but traded it incorrectly.

-12 Dow

Weekly Round up 20th May

S&P H&S top played out perfectly to target quicker than expected, I have no idea what is going to happen next week but it will be interesting.

18th May Trading

1st Trade RR of trendline with trend lost 9 points exit was good took the loss read the PA looking back shouldn't have taken the trade did not look so bearish on 3m but on 5m spoos 2 very bearish candles should not have traded against them I have said that before need to learn.  It was also a C/T move so got out quick

Important look at the bigger structure of the day and how it is building not just a couple of hours!

Targets

I am going to change my targets at the moment I will set a target but change my mind when it gets there because it was never going to be my real target.  I trade price action as it happens so depending on the price action I will change my target in trade.  Then I realized why does a target have to be in a straight line, you need to set a target before the move happens you need some idea on the exit..

17th May Trading

Analysis:

Today price did exactly what I thought it was going to do and I still lost money not only that I entered a trade at almost the perfect time I could have entered the trade that moved almost 100 pips in my favor exactly as I thought it would and I still lost money.  This isn't the first time this has happened.  So what is happening:

Poor Psychology as I keep saying

Poor Analysis - This is something else I realized today it actually isn't just poor psychology it is poor analysis but not of the trade the entry was nearly perfect it is poor analysis on how I should be trading this market for my style of trading.  I'm not giving trades enough room to breath, I'm not allowing for the market to do exactly what it will do normally.  I'm closing trades when price reacts off a level exactly as I would expect it to?  Which is ridiculous if it didn't react off these levels like this then I wouldn't know where to trade at all but I'm actually closing trades at terrible points.

It is not all bad I need to take away some important positives... I am actually placing the trades now before I wasn't I was just sitting there going I think it is going to do this then watching it happen and not doing anything.  Now I am actually trading them then closing the trade at the wrong time so we have made a big step forward no I just need to tackle the next problem.

How I am also going to tackle this issue is through better statistics, I have been following an amazing thread on Big Mike's Trading and I will now start reporting all my trades where I got out and what type of entry it was along with many other variables such as how far it moved in my favor for a trade that worked or how far it moved against me for a trade that didn't.  This will all be extremely valuable and help me build my confidence.

Looking at the trades I was right on the direction of all of them it wasn't rocket science though very poor trade management.  I need to change how I manage these trades now or my results will not change.

Dow Short = 0

Dow Short = -10

Dow Short = 0

Dow Short +1

Total = -9

Tomorrow is Facebook IPO and option expiry so it could be messy it is going to be very interesting to see what happens.

PSYCHOLOGY

YOU HAVE TO STOP GETTING OUT OF TRADES TOO EARLY I CONTINUALLY FIND THE RIGHT ENTRIES AND THEN GET OUT ON A MINOR MOVEMENT I DON'T LIKE

IF YOU DON'T STOP DOING IT YOU WILL NOT GET ANY FURTHER THAN WHERE YOU ARE RIGHT NOW!!!

Stop looking at the p&l and just watch the chart know your exit and stick to it.

There is a reason why finding the entries is about 25% the rest is psychological.

16th May

No trading.  Market sold off, Futures moved higher but then coninued the down trend

15th May

I feel like I edged forwards today results were as poor as normal but my trading is improving mainly my psychology. I think I have to be careful about over analyzing the long time frames although I was actually right on my daily analysis yesterday and the index moved as I had expected it isn't actually that pertinent to how I trade.  I will continue to monitor as it is useful to know but I will be careful in ensuring it does not consume my bias on picking trades.  A probability play is a probability play and the market will do what it does I think it is unlikely I will very often be able to look at a daily chart and predict how it is going to move the next day.  I may have a feeling on the TA and sentiment as well as the fundamentals which is important but when I'm trading I need to be trading what I see unfolding in front of me and nothing else except for maybe on very extreme situations.

-2
+9
-8
+3
-21
Total = -19 points

Daily Overview

Round - up 14th May

Gap Close

14th May 2012

Look at the price action that you would want to follow a trend and loot at the price action where you are more likely to see a reversal.  The price action for following a trend is often similar sideways then a thrust then sideways then a thrust.  For a reversal it is more likely to move quickly into the level but let the reversal print.

No trades.

Weekly round-up

Dow - worst week of 2012

11th May Friday close

Friday we had a +100 move up to the 900 level then a clear rejection of the level that culminated in a fake-out. Always interesting to know why this happens I've read there are algorithms that can cause these or traders genuinely wanted to push prices higher but the sell off seemed inevitable.  The sell off after the fake-out was strong with plenty of pull backs that nearly wiped out all the gains made by the morning rally.

Pain

10th May No trading

I'm trying to catch reversals too much in fact that is pretty much all I try to do this is hugely wrong try and get in with the current trend let the reversal print or if it is a strong reversal then get in some examples of clear reversal no buyers or sellers let price show you where it does not want to go!

Strong Reversal examples:

9th May Set-ups

Set-ups 1,2,3,5 and 6 would have worked to hit target without taking a loss the only set up that did not work was number 4 which was the setup I took.  The reason being is I do not have the confidence to hit the trade as it enters the level I'm waiting for further price action.  This shows that by taking these trades the probability will win out over time I just need to learn to hit the trade when I see price action form correctly around the level.  This is at least two bars showing a clear rejection of that level.

9th May Probability Plays

This is going to be my new daily homework look at all the set-ups I could have taken and see how many work and how many do not to give me confidence in the probabilities! That is all you need to do trade the probability.

Levels Breaking

It looks like if you get a small mini trend line into the level it will not hold and this is a tell tale sign it may break

Something to think about it hit 5 of my levels while I was watching price and 4 of them would have worked if traded the way I thought price was going to move and 1 of them didn't work.... I traded the 1 that didn't work.

Was this unlucky ... maybe or am I looking for too much of a signal when price hits the level!

Trading 9th May

Dow -40 points

Went long into a short SFP again also traded a set up that wasn't even a set up I was annoyed because I missed the first 2 setups. Really bad couple of days of trading.

IT DOESN'T MATTER IF THE SFP DOESN'T LOOK THE BEST DO NOT TRADE THE OPPOSITE WAY INTO AN SFP EVER I SAID THIS YESTERDAY THEN DID IT AGAIN TODAY

If a level is tested and it can't close over it to the pip trade it.

Classic example of a level collapsing bars making lower highs and we add SFP Bias to the downside

Classic example of a level holding

Look at how the price moves into the levels differently each time when price is sticking to the level but everytime can't push as fara away from it this is a warning sign



Trading 8th May

Don't short into an SFP JUST DON'T DO IT.  It is stupid it doesn't matter how small the target.

If you have a strong inclination that price is going to do something don't go on the hope that another pattern sets up first stick with what price is doing and how where it wants to go.  Wait for the RR instead of trading another test of the level.

Dow = -20

-20 for the day

My trade management is terrible and my stops are worse I entered 4 trades in 1 day 3 of them were near enough perfect entries but due to poor money management and psychology I ended up down for the day.  Needs to be addressed ASAP

You have to define your exit before going in regardless of time scale you can watch price action develop after but if it hits target you get out unless it is pushing hard.  It may give another entry for you to get in at so you will have another chance if you are out price will never move in a straight line for long.

The MEJT signal on S&P worked well even though mainly news driven.  A long off the signal would have given a good profit also the MEJT pm signal worked perfectly on 1/5/2012 Jeff confirmed on the website as well