Overnight PA

19th and 23rd October - strong sell off - overnight rally
Look into others

iPhone notes 23rd October 2012

I seem to have 2 modes to trading im either over causiouc or under causiouc. Need to find happy medium

Is it reversion to the mean or trend?

When you are in a trade and you are more than 50% sure it is going to move against you just get out don't sit and hope because that's then all you are doing hoping not trading

Closing trades is your absolute nemesis right now you need to be able to close losing trades IT SHOULD NOT BE HITTING FULL STOP FOR THIS TYPE OF TRADING you know if you are wrong so close an be confident in your trading that you can regain the points 

Don't trade against ledging in an uptrend

Don't trade against a probing spike after a big sell off. It's basically a buying tail you've seen this action many times think of the CV diamond formation

Be very cautious with any trading after a big move

MANAGE RISK DON'T MANAGE RETURN

When you are in a trade and you know feel the hypothesis is wrong i.e. you wouldn't get in the trade now GET OUT or better reverse the trade if appropriate 

After big trends each day overnight seems to do the opposite look into this

Got to stop the hesitation need to work on this you decide if you are going to do something at a level if price gets there you do it.  If ou can't resolve this you will not progress

Why is it that sometimes you do the opposite of what you know is right the market gets you thinking the opposite is correct. Experience tells you the correct option

Sometimes it maybe important to stop and say what are you doing? Why are you not trading the way you normally trade?

When going into a trading box or hitting a level is second time back sometimes the quickest move? Then 3rd will often break the level. Look into this 

15th - 18th Trades

IMPORTANT iPhone notes 18th October

It's frame of mind that dictates the losing and winning days not setups. What are you doing are you studying or are you trading. What mindset are you in trying to snipe the best trade or trying to trade what the market is showing you the latter is what you should always be in watching the ticks analysing the market flow.

You are too focused on the concept 'get in where you know you are wrong the quickest' this is an important topic but needs to be utilised in the right context it is not always pertinent at the moment I just use it to focus on swing highs lows and get in as close to that but this isn't always right there is a lot more to the market than this. Focus on developing this idea more

Identify the principles and natural law that governs the rules you seek. What are these?

Look at trades not in money terms but was it the right setup and was it managed well don't base it on money lost or won

You have a short bias and find it difficult to take longs this needs to be resolved. Look at long setups in more detail what is it that is stopping you from taking these?

Stop doing trades that are revolved around I'm going to try it here because I can get in really close to where I am wrong! They never work!STOP THEM NOW

IMPORTANT

Look out for the days where you nearly place a few trades but don't try then go on to work perfectly so you try and find a trade to make up for the missed points WHEN THIS HAPPENS YOU ALMOST ALWAYS LOSE

Bull market price open lower then go up and vice versa. 

Novices look at the intraday price action pros look at what's come before 

Strong Trend days

Look at the week ahead

Good Quote

So, read everything and learn the basic concepts of supply and demand, market structure, and really understand how and why a market behaves the way it does and you are on your way to an indicator free price action trading approach. The short answer is informed screen time.

Volatility Periods

Hourly Analysis

Look at hourly charts of S&P, NASDAQ, DOW, DXY sometimes the other charts give a better perspective of future price direction for all the indices.

DXY - DOW Correlation

Trend Lines and SR on hourly

9th - 12th October 2012 trades

9th October 2012

10th October 2012

11th October 2012

12th October 2012

iphone notes 13th October

Use opening range s/r

Placebo effect

Taking positives out of all situations

The idea is to not make huge ticks everyday it is to manage risk and consistently make more than you lose. You can only take what is available and that is normally a lot less than you see in hindsight

Gartman letter - trade only with the major trend or do not trade at all - weekly charts looking at long trend only trade when a major level is broken

Start writing at the start of the week - views e.g. Risk on or off favour shorts or longs look at TGL

Stop choking - put things into perspective actions need to be fluid

Bandwidth - perception

Focus on managing risk more than profits - this will make profits in time! You are a risk manager first and foremost

As soon as you make profits you will go from risk averse to risk seeking - this is inevitable and it needs to be managed

Emotional triggers will make you change even more so than financial

Holding trades is a problem - confidence

I was right about every move today but only pulled 8 points - why?

Who's managing most the money bulls or bears etc

Look at small gaps in price is it better to sell straight after? Do they normally retrace

Trade management is still really bad scared of taking loss like mf says you need pacience for some trades or close and re enter look into what's going on

Flexible mindset is always key have a vision but be ready to change you will have to do this a lot

Look at how markets react to crisis events - rate them on strength

Stocks rule in terms of correlation

Careful at looking at markets as laggards and leaders look at them as strong and weak markets if they are correlated

How often do trades hit target that is the statistic to record

12th October notes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew1L6SLpHgM

What would improve my trading right now:

• More room to breathe on trades
• Holding to targets
• Not over managing from the 1m
• Trade Entry (patience)
• Wider stops
• Better execution waiting for a better entry at times but these times are fairly obvious
• I'f I'm fading a move it has to be done correctly, trade management needs to be different
• Reasses the trade decisions that revolve around 'I'll go in here with a really tight stop'  They rarely seem to work
• The first trade I have made every day this week has been virtually the best possible trade I could have made for the hours I have traded but has been poorly managed due to the reasons above
• Looking at todays trades (and most the trades this week) setting my stop and target and leaving the trade would have been best
• Most of what I trade at the moment is congestion, study the movement more
• I'm getting the directions right, I'm failing due to poor trade management/poor entry

9th October trading

Lesson from today: Need better confidence in holding trades all trades went on to hit target bar 1 but all were closed early for small profits.  Need to know when patience is required due to low volume grind as well.

IMPORTANT - Always monitor

• Candle strength e.g. are the biggest candles bull or bear?
• Swing strength e.g. momentum of the swings compared with the previous
• Swing projection e.g. how far has price pushed past the previous swing
• Probing spikes or H&S patterns
• Candle patterns (don't put too much weight on these)
• Candle shadows clustering especially on the 1m
• Retests of levels

Things to look out for:

• Is it a pullback or a test reversal?

1. Does it fake out one side then reverse?
2. How long has it been at the level?
3. Is it at an important level?

iphone notes

Monitor trend on 3m and 1m separate and update all the time on the screen

Log trades w/t type of trade/setup and trend on 3m and 1m at that point

Grade the setup on how good the entry was

Mark the most recent swing that you are using to gauge trend direction

Don't just analyse swing high /low look at the strength of the swing then pullback sometimes even if it doesn't break swing high low it still can give you a good sign

Feedback loop - what are you doing right and wrong in a trade, take out what's bad and keep what's good

Market replay - feedback loop

Try and put the entry trigger where the opposite traders are going to exit their trade

If price is moving it has a target - where is the target? Maybe use multiple scenarios

Mf breakout places his trades based on stop position - could look into this?

Look for structure on the 3m maybe look into just using 3m as trading time frame and get in on pullback on the 1m

Look into tradersmarts

Place price into the higher time frame context

Review process:
What did you expect to happen
What did happen
Why was there a difference
What can you learn from this


Use opening range s/r

Placebo effect

Taking positives out of all situations

The idea is to not make huge ticks everyday it is to manage risk and consistently make more than you lose. You can only take what is available and that is normally a lot less than you see in hindsight

Gartman letter - trade only with the major trend or do not trade at all - weekly charts looking at long trend only trade when a major level is broken

Start writing at the start of the week - views e.g. Risk on or off favour shorts or longs look at TGL

Stop choking - put things into perspective actions need to be fluid

Bandwidth - perception

Focus on managing risk more than profits - this will make profits in time! You are a risk manager first and foremost

As soon as you make profits you will go from risk averse to risk seeking - this is inevitable and it needs to be managed

Emotional triggers will make you change even more so than financial